The consumer confidence in France is 86, coming out generally as what traders have expected before the data was actually released. What is more, retail sales in Spain have contracted 10.7% on a yearly basis during December, pushing the currency pair continue its bearish trend temporarily.
Seen from the 4H forex chart, the currency pair EUR/USD is generally on its bearish trend today and it is obvious that the pair has been trending sideways for a pretty long time. The currency pair moved with volatility as small as 70 pips since last weekend, which offered extremely few opportunities for traders to make profits.
However, at present, most forex analysts actually believe the EUR/USD is just being calm superficially before another real bullish storm come. Firstly, regardless of the just released divergent European economical data, forex traders never stop funding in the market and hoping the EUR/USD would gain more strength in the near future.
RBS currency strategist Greg Gibbs who also thought the EUR/USD would gain support said “the risk remains that the EUR continues to rise, we must remain vigilant to a shift in rhetoric in the ECB towards cutting the policy rate, at which point the EUR should top-out”; making it more reasonable for us to looking forward to the bullish move of the pair.
Technically speaking, the 20MA of the EUR/USD shows a great sign of trending upwards, indicating the rate may eventually resume to its bullish trend no matter how it is actually going now. Moreover, the Bollinger Bands are trending apart with a large open space, which also means there may possibly be big movement happening in the market.
Like what had happened to the currency pair EUR/USD last week, the GBP/USD also met with is negative mood after the EMU data was released and it was pushed to 1.5710 once before the opening of London secession.
No economic data is expected for the UK today, but traders can pay attention to the US economic events, including the publications of Durable Goods, Pending Home Sales, and Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index.
Now technically speaking, the GBP/USD is possibly getting to continue its bearish trend. The Bollinger Bands, 20MA and even the MACD line simultaneously are pointing downwards to tell traders the pair would temporarily keep trending down sided. However, on the 4H forex chart, the RSI lines is moving to the oversold territory, which means the GBP/USD may meet with strong support at 1.5700.
The most often traded currency pair EUR/USD has been on its corrective trend after a constant rally since last week, after the EMU data came out worse than what the market has expected.
The EMU data decreased from 3.8% to 3.8% in December, while what the market has exactly wished is 3.9%. Private Loans contracted -0.7% in December. The Italian Consumer Confidence dropped from 85.7 to 84.6 in January, despite the rising consensus to 86.0.
After the EMU data came out, the EUR/USD dropped a little bit, pushing the currency pair run out its bullish trend and got to a corrective one. Traders can also judge from the chart the currency pair is likely to meet with great moves in the next a couple of hours for the three lines of Bollinger Bands are moving apart from each other. For now, the rate of EUR/USD would possibly continue its bearish trend for the RSI line is moving above the remarkable line 70, indicating the pair is under overbought. Which means there would be more selling pressure driving in and the rate of the pair would continue to decrease.
Seen from the chart, EUR/USD may meet its strong support at 1.3401, which is the cross of 1.00 Fibonacci retracement level and previous candles.
Since 8:00 o’clock this morning on 25th Jan.2013, the rate of EUR/USD kept moving upwards with a fresh high lie at 1.3414. Now seen from both technical and fundamental perspectives, the currency pair is great likely to continue its bullish trend in the next a couple of hours-before the BTMU come out.
Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ analysts think “The modest tightening in ECB policy as its balance shrinks will help lift EUR/USD at a time when the Fed is expanding its balance sheet by USD85.0 billion per month. The FOMC meeting in the week ahead should prove merely a holding operation with no change in policy expected. US economic growth is Q4 is expected to have slowed sharply ahead of the fiscal cliff with net trade a big drag on growth helping to support the Fed’s ongoing easing operation.”
Apart from the news release, the data reflected on the 4H forex chart also shows EUR/USD is meeting with its continuation of the bullish trend. First, in the last two periods, the previous two candles form a fixed pattern called Harami. A Harami occurred on a downside trend indicates there would be a retracement and the rate would move back upwards. In addition, the 20 MA and the BB are both trending with an upwards tendency. Traders can regard as all of them as indication of the pair’s bullish direction.
The rate of GBP/USD is generally trending sideways; however, traders can still figure out it is slightly falling back downwards on the 4H forex chart. GBP/USD opened at 1.5790 this morning, on 25th Jan. 2012 and is now moving at around 1.5780, with volatility of about 10 pips only.
The GBP/USD would retrace back slightly ahead of the UK Q4 GDP due later. Prior surveys expect the economic activity in the British economy to expand 0.2% on a yearly basis and to contract 0.1% QoQ.
Seen on the 1H forex chart of GBP/USD, the BB are squeezing and the 20MAis moving horizontally, indicating there would be no big movements of the market in the near future. Traders who want to benefit from volatile market has to pay more attention and patience. However, the three lines all show a little tendency of moving upwards; so it is with RSI indicator.
In a word, the GBP/USD would probably trend with a little bullish signal, with next possible resistance lie at 1.5800 (the cross of 38.2 Fibonacci retracement level and previous candles.).
The EUR/USD has long kept sidelining around 1.3300 for a pretty long time and possibly the market has got exhausted about it. However, today, the pair eventually rally back upwards after the positive German PMI is released-it came out better than what the market had expected (from 46.0-48.6, while the original consensus was 46.8).
EUR/USD once spiked on 1.3334 soon after the German PMI came out and now, seen from the 4H forex chart, the pair resumed to its old area-around 1.3200.
Current amount data in the EMU would come out soon; traders can wait to see more possible changes and then decide what actions to take in the next step.
Obviously the GBP/USD has suffered quite great losses since the very opening time of 24th Jan. 2013, falling from yesterday’s highest point 1.5892 to the current zone around 1.5830. Yesterday a neutral tone out of the BoE minutes plus the speech by UK’s PM Cameron gave some support to the pound, while it is not able to prevent from the currency pair from dropping sharply today.
Now analyzing the forex trend in a technical perspective, it shows indication that it would trend with no clear directions in at least the next a couple of hours. Seen on the 4H forex chart, all the indicators I get used to help analyze the market show there would be no big changes of the pair gonna happen for now. In addition, the squeezing Bollinger Bands mean the candles would just move within the more and more narrow space in the short near future.
At the time of writing, GBP/USD is moving at 1.5838, with next possible resistance lied at 1.5844.